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(Bloomberg) -- US gasoline prices have a legitimate chance of rising to $5 a gallon as refiners prioritize jet-fuel production at the expense of other products, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

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While Brent crude prices have averaged about $100 since the war in Iran began, the shocks are “increasingly being pushed down the barrel, out of crude and into refined products” such as jet fuel and diesel, analysts led by Natasha Kaneva wrote in a Friday note. If refinery runs remain constrained, crude may plausibly stay around $100, while fuel prices continue to rise, they said.

For now, the most impacted product from the Middle East conflict has been jet fuel, giving refiners an incentive to maximize output. That typically means less diesel, the analysts wrote. The ripple effects have extended to gasoline as well, they said, as heavier hydrocarbons are diverted away from “crackers” that produce gasoline feedstock.

“This likely helps explain why US gasoline prices are at [$4.55 a gallon] and why the risk of $5 gasoline can no longer be dismissed,” the analysts wrote.

In the US, jet fuel yields have increased by roughly 2 percentage points, while gasoline yields have declined by 2 percentage points. Nationally, gasoline stockpiles are just off their seasonal lows for the past decade.

“The timing could hardly be worse,” the analysts wrote. “The US driving season unofficially begins with Memorial Day at the end of May.”

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