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Bank of America sees Eli Lilly’s Foundayo as preferred oral GLP-1
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Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY) is entering the US market slightly ahead of schedule with its oral GLP-1 weight-loss therapy Foundayo, a move Bank of America says could expand the obesity market without cannibalizing the company’s existing Zepbound product. In a note to clients, Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on Lilly, citing the early approval and favorable labeling of Foundayo, also known as orforglipron. Analysts described the therapy as the preferred oral GLP-1 due to its ease of use and lack of food restrictions. The bank adjusted near-term forecasts to account for launch pricing and expected early dose-mix, lowering its 2026 US revenue estimate to around $2 billion from $3 billion, while leaving full-year revenue largely unchanged at $82 billion. Its price target for Lilly shares was slightly raised to $1,294. Bank of America is projecting roughly 90% of second-quarter prescriptions will come from lower-dose formulations priced at $149 and $199. Revenue is forecast at $220 million for Q2 2026, with acceleration expected in the second half of the year as patients move to higher doses and government access expands. “As we look to the first launch quarter, we expect the second quarter of 2026 to resemble Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy rollout,” analysts wrote. “For example, orforglipron should be the preferred product with slightly better pricing, offset by the advantage that Novo Nordisk gained from entering the market earlier.” Looking further ahead, analysts said Foundayo could generate roughly $15 billion in global revenue by 2029, in line with consensus estimates, with investor attention likely to center on early prescription trends and any impact on other Lilly obesity therapies.